It’s that time of year again. The baseball season kicks off in less than a week, and there’s still snow on the ground in Toronto. Even though the Blue Jays had the 3rd best ERA in the Majors in 2007, they only managed to win 83 games and finish 3rd in the AL East, 13 games behind Boston, largely due to offensive struggles. Several moves were made in the off-season by GM JP Ricciardi in order to bolster the Jays offense. Below, I will attempt to dissect the team positionally and end with my prediction on how this season will unfold.
Pitching Rotation
Halladay had a better 2007 than his 16-7 record suggests. Halladay only recieved the decision in 23 of his 31 starts, and it seemed that every night he toed the rubber the Jays offense was invisible. He lacked run support for the majority of his starts, and I distinctly remember a stretch of starts mid-season where he wasn’t in position to receive the win as he left the game in 7th or 8th inning in a low score tie. If the off-season changes provide the result that JP hopes, he could easily return with a 20-win season.
This could be Burnett’s last season in a Jays uniform. Rumor has it that he is considering his opt-out clause for the 2009 season — and I can’t blame him. When he came to Toronto he was a career .500 pitcher well known for injury problems. What has he been in Toronto? A career .500 pitcher with injury problems. He’s been exactly what he always has been, nothing less, nothing more, yet the media has been highly critical of his inability to stay healthy. Recently, the media had a field-day when he tore his finger nail on his car door, preventing him from using his curve-ball in Spring Training. I’m not saying the media and fans don’t have the right to be critical of him, especially with his salary, but to expect him to make 32 starts a season with 20 wins is unfair when his career numbers show otherwise. Don’t get me wrong, when he’s hot — he’s hot. His curve ball is nasty, and he’s nearly un-hittable. When he’s not hot, it almost as if he’s telling the batter what pitch is coming next. It’s like he has some sort of Dr. Jekyll and Mr. Hyde persona. That being said, you need to expect more than a 10-8 record over 25 starts from your number 2 pitcher if you are to compete in the AL East. He may very well turn out to be the weakest link out of this year’s starting 5.
One of the few bright spots of 2007. With 27 starts and a 12-10 record, he is a very solid pitcher at the 3-spot. My only concern is that because he has solidified his place on the pitching staff, he won’t pitch with the same intensity as he did last year, when he was pitching with that mentality that each game could be his last. Jays fans are all too familiar with Josh Towers going down that road, when in the 2005 and 2006 seasons Towers dropped from 13-12 to 2-10.
Much like McGowan, he had an outstanding rookie season as a starting pitcher with a 12-6 record and 25 starts. He will need to repeat last season’s performance if the Jays wish to compete with the two super-powers of the AL East.
Although he had an up and down rookie season, he finished with a respectable 7-9 record over 20 starts. If he can continue to improve his game and become a .500 pitcher or better he will complete what could possibly be the most dominant starting rotation in the entire American League.
Bullpen / Relief Pitching
I don’t feel the need to dissect each pitcher, as the Jays’ bullpen is, for the most part, unchanged from last year. The bullpen took a hit with the season ending injury to Janssen in Spring Training, but the return of closer BJ Ryan will shift Accardo back to the set-up role, which should provide a dominant 1-2 punch in the 8th and 9th innings. Downs, Frasor, League, Tallet and Wolfe round out the bullpen.
Infield
1st base – Lile Overbay
2007 is a year Overbay would like to forget. He spent a good chunk of the season on the DL with a broken hand which greatly hampered his offensive abilities. His average dropped from .312 in 2006 to .240 in 2007. He is the first of several Jays who fall into the category of players who need to return to their 2006 form if the Blue Jays are to see post-season action.
2nd base – Aaron Hill
Hill had an outstanding year, both offensively and defensively. He improved his power game dramatically, hitting 17 home-runs, up from 6 in 2006 and 3 in 2005. Look for more of the same from Hill this year.
Short Stop – David Eckstein
I had a tough time swallowing the Eckstein signing. McDonald is absolutely incredible defensively, and JP subsequently rewarded him with a 3.8 million, 2-year contract extension. Yes, Eckstein is a tangible improvement at the plate, but on pure entertainment value I would prefer to watch McDonald at shortstop every night. Eckstein may turn out to be the overall better choice, but as a fan it’s disheartening to see a player like McDonald lose his starting roster spot. He’s constantly battled to remain in the line-up, and outplayed everybody that JP threw in-front of him. He was finally rewarded for his efforts, only to have it taken away by a desperate GM looking to save face.
3rd base – Scott Rolen
Traded straight up in the off-season for Troy Glaus. Both players have been known for their inability to stay healthy, so it was a roll of the dice for both the Jays and Cardinals. Unfortunately for the Jays, Rolen couldn’t even survive Spring Training. He is expected to miss Opening Day and the first 1-2 weeks of the season due to a broken finger and torn fingernail he sustained during fielding practice. He doesn’t have the same pop in his bat that Glaus has, but he’s a defensive improvement and provides a more consistent plate presence. His numbers dropped tangibly from 2006 to 2007, so you can safely plunk Rolen into the category of players who need to return to their 2006 form.
Catcher – Gregg Zaun / Rod Barajas
Once again the Jays do not have a solid, number 1 catcher — instead fans are left watching a 1a-1b tandem, although I am tempted to call this a 2a-2b rotation. Zaun; combined with the starting rotation’s inability to hold runners close to the bag amounts to nothing short of a defensive disaster. He has 0 ability to throw out even the slowest of base-stealers, and teams with speed will continue to be the bane of the Blue Jays existence. Zaun’s biggest asset is his baseball ’smarts’, and his ability to call games effectively. He also works well with Halladay and the young 3-5 starters. That being said, a pitching staff of the Jays quality deserves a true #1 catcher. I would have preferred that JP went out and addressed the team’s primary need, but alas, addressing minor needs and ignoring major flaws has been a recurring theme with JP.
Outfield
Right Field – Alex Rios
Not much needs to be said about Rios. Expectations are that Rios will repeat his performance from last year and hit close to .300 with 90+ RBIs and 25HRs.
Center Field – Vernon Wells
Expectations are high for the gold glove outfielder. He played most of 2007 through shoulder problems, and it showed. He posted career worsts in nearly every statistic imaginable. He needs to return to form, and a half-baked improvement over last season won’t cut it. He needs to return with numbers similar to his 2006 campaign, or better yet, bounce back with a career season.
Right Field – Shannon Stewart
I have mixed feelings on the decision to let Johnson walk in favour of Stewart. My biggest concern is that Stewart had no desire to initially return to Toronto – he only chose to when he realized no other teams were interested in his services. Although Stewart is a career .300 batter, he is on the downside of his career and I am not convinced he can put up those kinds of offensive numbers anymore. He is a serious defensive liability, and I cringe at the thought of speedy teams testing his flimsy arm. That being said, he adds some much needed speed to a team that has few runners capable of stealing bases in a game of small-ball.
Bench Players
DH - Frank Thomas
Although he had respectable numbers in 2007, he saw a reduction in RBIs and HRs from his 2006 season despite making it to the plate 65 more times. He was inconsistent, and went through several slumps which hurt the team. Age is starting to take it’s toll on the big slugger, and it’s anyone’s guess as to how effective he will be.
1st base / LF – Matt Stairs
Matt Stairs will likely see the majority of his time at RF, splitting time with Stewart provided that Overbay stays healthy at 1st base. He was a pleasant surprise off the bench last year, playing much more than initially expected due to the lengthy injuries to Johnson and Overbay. Not only did he play much more than expected, but he played well, hitting .289 with 64 RBIs and 21HRs in only 357 plate appearances. He became a very patient hitter, walking 44 times, partially due to pitchers’ unwilingness to throw anything close to the plate. I think Jays fans fell head over heels for their fellow Canadian, but I can’t help but question if he will be able to repeat his 2007 performance as he approaches the age of 40.
Shortstop / 3B – John McDonald
As mentioned, “Magic-Mac” appears to have been removed from his daily duties at shortstop in favour of Eckstein. He’s a solid left infielder that can also play 3rd base, giving Rolen and Eckstein rest as needed. He will also be used as a defensive substitution when the Jays need to hold onto a 1 or 2 run lead late in games.
That rounds out the key players on this years Jays roster. If the players in the ‘class of 2006′ can return to form and the team can avoid significant injury, the Jays could be a dark-horse contender for October baseball. Unfortunately, I don’t think everything will go as planned — there’s simply too many pieces that need to fall into place. There’s been an excuse for the team’s shortfalls each year, with a bunch of ‘ifs’ piled on, and this year is no different. JP has been serving up the same glass of kool-aid ever since he arrived, and I’m reluctant to buy it again.
The Jays were blessed with the emergence of McGowan, Marcum and Litsch when the likes of Towers, Chacin and Ohka fizzled last season. That same luxury isn’t present this year. If more than one of those 3 young starters falls to injury or fails to repeat last season’s performance, this team will be in serious trouble. JP sacrificed defense at SS and LF in order to add some consistancy at the plate, which may turn out to be a good thing if Eckstein and Stewart are able to play decent defensive games. Again, that’s another big ‘if’, especially in the case of Stewart. Last season the Jays offense was built for the ‘big inning’. They were built around power hitting. With less power in this year’s lineup I expect to see more small-ball, however this team doesn’t have the speed, or ability to throw out base-stealers to play that type of game each night.
Prediction: 88-74, 2nd in AL East, 2GB of WildCard
